Comparison of General Election results 2007-2010

Submitted by Edmund Gall on Thu, 05/27/2010 - 04:12
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TT_Election_Results_2007-2010.pdf59.33 KB

NOTE: The T&T Elections & Boundaries Commission (EBC) did not publish detailed results by party by constituency via its website at the time I wrote this.  As a result, I had to rely on unverified figures from third-party websites that claimed to have obtained them from the EBC.  The 2007 results were preliminary figures released on 05 Nov 2007 and the 2010 results were preliminary figures released on 26 May 2010.  These figures may differ from the final results officially published by the EBC due to recounts in progress at the time of their release.  A summary spreadsheet of the data is attached in PDF.

TLAs (two- or three-letter acronyms):

Voter turnout was higher in the 2010 General Election than that of 2007, in terms of both numbers of voters and as a proportion of the total number of registered electors. Voter turnout as a proportion of registered electors was 69% in 2010 compared to 66% in 2007, with an extra 59,345 voters exercising their franchise.  We're unable to compare increases in total registered electors at the time of writing as the EBC breakdown by constituency for 2010 has not been published (only 2007 figures are available via the EBC's website).

In terms of proportional representation, the PNM got 40% of the 719,368 valid votes, which represented 27% of the 1,040,127 registered electors.  This was down from the 30% of registered electors' votes that they won in 2007 (out of 990,467 registered electors).  Conversely, the PP got 42% of the registered electors' votes this year, up from the 35% that the combined UNCA, COP and DAC won in 2007.

The four constituencies with the largest increase in total valid votes all transferred from the PNM to the PP: D'Abadie/O'Meara (increased by 2,967 votes, won by COP), Tobago West (2,775, TOP), Tobago East (2,630, TOP), San Fernando West (2,421, COP).  Only the latter three were considered marginals after the 2007 election.  However, turnout dropped in one constituency, the ex-PNM stronghold of Toco/Sangre Grande, where the total number of valid votes fell by 1,800.

Compared to their 2007 figures (i.e. the number of votes), the PNM lost support in 35 seats, including the constituency Toco/Sangre Grande.  Despite the fall in the total number of valid votes in this constituency, the UNC was able to increase its total in 2010 relative to the sum of the UNCA and COP votes in 2007 by 413 votes.

When compared to their 2007 percentages (i.e. percentage of total valid votes by constituency), the PNM lost support in all 41 seats.  Of the seats that transferred from the PNM to the PP, the largest swings away from the PNM occurred in: Arima (16%), D'Abadie/O'Meara (12%), La Horquetta/Talparo (11%), Tobago West (11%), and Tobago East (10%). Large swings away from the PNM were also observed in St. Anns East (12%) and Diego Martin North/East (10%), but the PNM was able to hold on to these.

In the 12 seats won by the PNM, the swing away from the PNM ranged from 6% (Point Fortin) to 12% (St. Anns East).

If a marginal seat is defined as any seat won by less than 3,000 votes, then there are now 17 marginals: seven PNM,  five COP, three UNC and two TOP seats.  The following are the new marginals in increasing order of margin:

  • Toco/Sangre Grande (by 206 votes, held by UNC)
  • Arima (371, COP)
  • Diego Martin North/East (461, PNM)
  • Diego Martin West (754, PNM)
  • Tobago West (882, TOP)
  • Point Fortin (926, PNM)
  • Diego Martin Central (999, PNM)
  • Lopinot/Bon Air West (1,057, COP)
  • La Horquetta/Talparo (1,079, UNC)
  • D'Abadie/O'Meara (1,120, COP)
  • San Fernando West (1,301, COP)
  • Tobago East (2,026, TOP)
  • La Brea (2,469, PNM)
  • Tunapuna (2,508, COP)
  • St. Anns East (2,713, PNM)
  • Moruga/Tableland (2,947, UNC)
  • POS North/St. Anns West (2,968, PNM)

Some other notable results include:

  • Of the female PNM candidates who led the attack on their campaign platforms, only Marlene McDonald retained her seat.  Since PNM incumbent Christine Kangaloo's support (7,427 votes) in Point-a-Pierre was less that the sum of the UNCA and COP votes (9,876) in 2007, it was probably not advisable for her to be one of the leading speakers who engaged in offensive labelling of the PP. In the end the UNC's Errol McLeod benefitted from a swing away from Ms Kangaloo of 5%, which when added to the extra valid voters turned this 2007 marginal seat into a 2010 UNC stronghold (margin of victory 4,287, which is the largest victory margin of all the ex-marginals).
  • Dr Keith Rowley lost 8% of his support compared to 2007 figures, but won his seat with 52% of the constituency's valid votes.
  • Patrick Manning lost 7% of his support compared to 2007 figures, bot won his seat with 61% of the constituency's valid votes.
  • Of the seats won by the PNM, the two Laventille seats were won by the widest margin: Laventille West (NiLeung Hypolite, with 80% of the valid votes) and Laventille East/Morvant (Donna Cox, 72%) - this was a resounding rejection of the NJAC candidates, Makandal Daaga and Kwasi Mutema respectively.
  • Of the UNC candidates, Jack Warner won his seat by the widest margin (Chaguanas West, with 93% of the valid votes), despite attempts to re-invigorate allegations about his dealings as a FIFA Vice-President and the amazingly timely re-appearance of some old Soca Warriors.
  • The largest swing away from the PNM occurred in Arima, which may indicate a very significant level of dissatisfaction amongst PNM supporters with Mr Manning's replacement of incumbent Penelope Beckles-Robinson by new-comer Laurel Lezama-Lee Sing (as well as an acceptance of the credible COP candidate).
  • Some seats considered marginal after the 2007 election are now UNC strongholds: Pointe-a-Pierre (4,287), Barataria/San Juan (by 4,108 votes), Chaguanas East (4,080) and  St. Joseph (3,057).  All of these were were previously held by PNM Ministers: Christine Kangaloo, Joseph Ross, Mustapha Abdul-Hamid and Kennedy Swaratsingh.
  • In the case of St. Joseph, voters appear to have been more concerned about the allegations made against Mr Swaratsingh in the week (involving money and religion) than with the Herbert Volney's swift transformation from judge to UNC politician.
  • If we compare the amount of votes won in 2010 to the sum of the UNCA and COP votes in 2007 and the number of extra valid votes in 2007, then we get a sense of whether a party gained support from or lost support to the other side.  With regards to their seats won in 2007, the UNC lost votes to the PNM in Fyzabad (lost 13 votes) and Cumuto/Manzanilla (lost 130 votes) only.  This may be a small message of discontent amongst UNC and/or COP supporters for Chandresh Sharma and Collin Partap (who replaced his father, Harry Partap) respectively.  However, the message may be overshadowed by their margin of victories (64% and 65% of their constituencies' valid votes respectively).
Blog: 
Trinidad and Tobago
pnm
UNC
COP
Congress Of the People
United National Congress
People's National Movement
General Election 2010
General Election 2007
Peoples Partnership
TOP

Comments

Submitted by From Foreign (not verified) on Thu, 05/27/2010 - 07:04.

Mr. Gall, what do you do for a living?

Submitted by Edmund Gall on Thu, 05/27/2010 - 21:06.

... but my professional background is in IT, lately in strategy, auditing and security.

Why do you ask?

Submitted by From Foreign (not verified) on Thu, 05/27/2010 - 22:58.

Just wondered what your inspiration is.

Submitted by From Foreign (not verified) on Thu, 05/27/2010 - 23:54.

...when someone blogs as openly as the people on this site.
Mr. Gall places things out for comment, not holding his own thoughts back. After a while it is a natural to want to know things about the writer. To my mind the question is fair and harmless. It answer also qualifies the writers work.

Submitted by Edmund Gall on Fri, 05/28/2010 - 09:22.

... I take your points.  I just found it startling because it was such a direct question from someone I didn't know, and I don't usually answer personal queries from unknown people.  I agree that the writers' background qualifies their work, but I'm also of the view that their output should be valued on their own as a foundation to dealing with their messages (rather than shooting the messengers, if you get me).

In some other blogs, especially those containing only contributions by the owner of the blog, there is a page containing a brief background description of the writer.

I'm happy to write openly, since I aim to have my opinions linked to issues or documents out in the open domain.  I don't aim to make unfounded accusations, but rather ask questions based on my reading of these issues/documents for others to consider and respond.  That's why I put my real name to all I write.  If someone else writes under a nom de plume, they may not wish to put their background info out in the open - this happens even in some newspapers where columns specific to some issues are written by insiders (e.g. in the London free paper, the Evening Standard, there is a column pertaining to issues/rumours within the financial sector written by an insider(s) writing anonymously under the name City Spy).

This is my first attempt at blogging, and I'm not the owner of this blog - I just contribute.  I'll discuss this with the owner.  Thanks for your views.

Submitted by Taran Rampersad on Fri, 05/28/2010 - 11:33.

If you go to the 'My Account' link on the top left and select Edit on that page, you'll find a Bio tab. Writing mine now...  :-)

Submitted by Edmund Gall on Fri, 05/28/2010 - 12:50.

... has been added.  Click on my name above.

Thanks to whoever raised the issue and to Taran for making it happen.

Submitted by Taran Rampersad on Fri, 05/28/2010 - 11:19.

Disclaimer:  technically speaking, I own the site I don't necessarily think I 'own' the blog. It's a co-op. I just keep the site running and write my own stuff here too. :-)

I'm considering modifying the user profiles on the site (and how to modify them) to allow bloggers profiles that include a bio that they write. I'm actually looking into it right now. But also, I wanted to point out that the comments here and Edmund's answer to the comments actually seems better than a bio in that an actual discussion takes place.

So I'll make it an option for myself and my fellow bloggers to have a bio within the profile... (where you go when you click the name of the author.)

 

Submitted by Edmund Gall on Fri, 05/28/2010 - 10:33.

I work outside of T&T but miss T&T a lot.  So as one way of maintaining the connection, I keep abreast of national issues and contribute to the national discussion about them.  I've done that for years through the Letters to the Editor sections of the daily newspapers, and still do, but turned to blogging for three main reasons:

  • Newspapers have finite space so they often edit letters.  Though they have always conveyed the gist of what I write, sometimes I feel the omitted portions are important. With blogging, i have more control over what the reader gets. Note: editing is a good thing - sometimes their edited versions have improved my writing.  I'm aiming for a balance between clarity and brevity, so I learn from how professional editors edit.
  • Newspapers are unable to include extensive links to the sources underlying what letter writers submit.  The Internet allows this through the use of embedded weblinks.  Since I aim to comment on national issues, and choose not to hide behind a nom de plume, I think it's important for readers of my articles to see the original sources that guided my thoughts.  It's a consequence of my university research experience as well, in that research articles must include references to underlying work that I didn't create.  Blogging allows me to embed the links for the readers' benefit, so they can better challenge and respond to my views and questions.
  • The process of publishing newspapers hinders the pace of national discussion in two ways.  Firstly, the editors directly influence what enters the national discussion by choosing which letters to publish. Secondly, if someone responds to a letter it gets published days later (if at all).  A lot of my letters have questions, but folks seem to think they are rhetorical and I never get the answers I seek.  So this blog allows wider and more immediate feedback from readers through the post-blog Comments facility (we don't edit), and allows folks to answer my questions.  There is value in discussion.  I am not always right, so I believe others should have easy access to correct me.  This blog facilitates this, and, thus, we all benefit.

So if you see any of my letters in the daily newspapers, you may get their unedited versions on this blog but with the additional links included and direct responses from others (like yours).  You'd also see some of my other posts that would probably never get published in a newspaper because of their length or irrelevance.

I have no training or background in politics, but since politics affects me as a citizen and voter, I feel I have a right to contribute to the state of our political culture and choose to exercise this right through my writing.  I don't formally support any T&T party, but I strongly desire certain improvements in our political culture.  In this respect, most of the COP's principles intrigue me, but I recognise when these principles are shared by the other political parties too.  I believe we all have a part to play, so I don't subscribe to the persona of a die-hard PNM, COP, UNC or XYZ supporter.  I value very highly an ability to analyse issues without such prejudices, but recognise it's impossible to remove all inherent prejudice.

I think I have a responsibility to bring what I've learnt outside of T&T to bear on T&T's national issues; hence, I would include relevant examples from Europe (UK mostly) of what worked well and what didn't (and why).  I also draw on my professional experience and training, such as the logic of computing and mathematics, the efficiency of management theory and practice, or the questioning style and inquisitiveness from auditing.

As a teenager, I was a proof-reader/assistant editor on my college's magazine committee; that has affected my writing quality ever since in terms of grammar and typos.  In university, I learnt to pay attention to details, but in work, I learnt to keep it short and simple (the value of executive summaries), so I now try to balance detail with brevity.  I have a side-interest in psychology because my wife and many of our friends are psychologists, so I also explore people's motivations as they impact on national issues.  Hopefully, all of this comes across in my writing.

Does this answer your question?  Looking back on its length, this is a blog post in itself! ;-)

Thanks for your feedback.

Submitted by From Foreign (not verified) on Fri, 05/28/2010 - 13:27.

Thanks for the response. There's another guest in this thread but I'm the one who asked the question. Now with all that sorted, could someone write about this Manning resignation?

I'd like to know how the 2 main options for PNM Political/Opposition Leader will work out as they both won by the lowest margins in the election (from the PNM).

Submitted by Edmund Gall on Sat, 05/29/2010 - 23:37.

I wrote a piece exploring the PNM's options for recovery. Not sure what you mean by the '2 main options for PNM Political/Opposition Leader' - if you mean Dr Rowley and Mr Imbert, then I've addressed those in the article. If not, well, I'm presuming Dr Rowley is one of the people you mention - who's the other?

Submitted by Edmund Gall on Sat, 05/29/2010 - 23:33.

Apologies to all. I've rectified a problem with the file attached when this was first posted.  The data summary I used to draw the info in my article above can now be downloaded from the link embedded in the opening Note in the article and via the separate link at the bottom of the article.

Let me know if you have any problems downloading the file.

30 May 2010: Correction made - 2010 St Augustine figures transferred from UNC column to COP column and No. of seats won updated to reflect correct totals for UNC (21), COP (6) and TOP (2). My apologies for the error.

Submitted by Where does the ... (not verified) on Sat, 05/29/2010 - 22:01.

[...] The People's Partnership's startling 29-12 election win means the scenario of T&T getting its first unelected Prime Minister has been postponed.  Taran Rampersad and BC Pires have each, in their unique ways, already recommended that we manage our expectations.  After such a stinging defeat, though, what are the options facing the People's National Movement? [...]

Submitted by Juggling minist... (not verified) on Tue, 06/08/2010 - 10:53.

[...] duties - his constituents clearly don't think it impacted on his previous duties as their MP, since he got the most votes out of any People's Partnership MP, as well as the biggest majority - then isn't it right to let the Prime Minister manage the [...]

Submitted by Does the EBC de... (not verified) on Thu, 07/08/2010 - 15:09.

[...] I promptly replied to the EBC's Research Officer to re-iterate that I was unable to visit their office in POS as suggested and asked if the data could be sent to me online.  I am yet to get a response, seven weeks after asking.  This customer service is unacceptable.  I eventually had to use unofficial results from a third-party's website for my analysis. [...]