Where does the PNM go from here?

What a week!  Before 24 May 2010, T&T was experiencing a drought in water and cricketing terms, and was racked in this weakened state by election fever.  After 25 May 2010, we got both rain and cricket, following a general election result that no professional pundit predicted.  So despite the WI senior men's cricket team snatched another defeat from the jaws of victory, the world seems to be unfolding as it should.

The People's Partnership's startling 29-12 election win means the scenario of T&T getting its first unelected Prime Minister has been postponed.  Taran Rampersad and BC Pires have each, in their unique ways, already recommended that we manage our expectations.  After such a stinging defeat, though, what are the options facing the People's National Movement?

Let's review briefly what's happened so far.  After hinting at his impending departure from as early as his first press conference outside his San Fernando constituency office while votes were being counted, the Hon. Ex-Prime Minister Patrick Manning formally tendered his resignation as Political Leader to the General Council three days after the election, and indicated his willingness to support the new Opposition Leader and Political Leader.  At the same meeting, the General Council passed a resolution recommending that Dr Keith Rowley be elected as the new Opposition Leader, and Dr Rowley indicated his willingness to accept the role.  Finally, the General Council has announced that the new Political Leader will be elected at a Special Convention on 27 Jun 2010.

In my opinion, there is some good and some bad in these decisions.  First, the good.  The new session of Parliament is expected within the next 2-3 weeks. So an Opposition Leader is needed now, and the General Council has moved with the required despatch to address this.  It remains to be seen if the other ten PNM MPs who got away last Monday would follow their advice; Colm Imbert has indicated his desire to contest both posts and some have said they want to hear what he has to say.

Another positive is that, thankfully, Mr Manning has decided not to endorse any person for either of the two posts.  There were initial rumours that Mr Manning was trying to get Mr Imbert or Dr Amery Browne elected as Opposition Leader, but these were not confirmed.  Just like the 'Panday' brand, the 'Manning' brand is now extremely politically tainted.  If Mr Manning really wants his party to regroup in the shortest time possible, then he is right to step completely away from the election process.  If he allows a strong link to remain between himself and his replacement, then the PNM would risk remaining in Opposition for a long time.

Now for the bad.  I believe the Special Convention has been scheduled too early.  If you examine the results, the PNM appears to have lost a significant amount of its own support from 2007, and members have openly complained about Mr Manning's disconnection with the ground level.  The new Political Leader will need to rejuvenate the party and get it prepared as a government-in-waiting.  From their public comments, many in the existing leadership continue to have delusions about why they got kicked out of office (although one Trinidad Express letter writer tried his best to educate them).  They need to reconnect; that takes time.

However, time doesn't appear to be on their side.  I suspect that the General Council is concerned that a snap Local Government election may be called by the new government soon, especially if the latter wishes to take advantage of their general election bounce in popularity and minimise the time available for making election-damaging wrong moves.  At this point, I think it would be a triumph of hope over experience for anyone in the PNM to think they would do better at the local government elections (even with Dr Rowley at the helm), given (1) their unprecedented postponement of the election for every one of the last four years, and (2) the nation's belief that having a local council run by a party not in government hampers effectiveness.  The General Council should have taken the longer view and do what's best for the PNM in order to win the next general election.

Thus, I think the Party should not move too hastily to elect a new Political Leader without proper consideration by the membership.  By setting the Political Leader election date within one month's time, the General Council has almost made it impossible for anyone but Dr Rowley to be elected to the post.  The election process would be much stronger if more than one credible person was allowed to properly compete for the position, and thus test the mettle of the eventual winner.  The PNM has more credible people than the 12 MPs who got away last Monday, surely?  Ex-MP for Arima, Mrs Penelope Beckles-Robinson is one such person who is already gaining support online.

Anybody installed without widespread member support in the constituencies where they lost the most, like Arima (where they lost 16% of their support), will have a tough time in the future.  Mr Imbert, who has indicated his intention to contest the posts, has no credibility outside of the PNM, purely from his arrogant behaviour towards the population and media while he was a Minister, particularly when he defended Mr Manning in matters relating to UDeCOTT.  He won his seat in 2007 by nearly 3,500 votes; he won it by about 460 votes this year, making Diego Martin North/East a new marginal seat.  Thus, he is clearly losing credibility within the PNM.  Quite frankly, the PNM would remain in Opposition if he is installed as Party Leader because just isn't seen as a future Prime Minister.

The PNM rank and file are hurting really badly, not just because they bought into the hype and fear-mongering that only a PNM government could run the country well or are extremely scared about the loss of the social transfers they've become accustomed to; it's the speed with which the change occurred.  A psychologist on a breakfast show this week said that a lot of the behaviours observed this week from captain to cook on the damaged ship PNM conform to Elisabeth Kübler-Ross's five stages of grief model.  He reminded us that in grief, depression and anger often reside in the same house.  So the party's General Council has an obligation to help the membership manage their grief (and the People's Partnership's supporters should cut them some slack and treat them like fellow citizens, not losers).  Having the Special Convention so early risks forcing the membership into making decisions while still angry and not thinking straight.  And they don't only have to think about the Political Leader; they need to think about whether the existing General Council did their best to prevent this loss, and if not, whether their own positions as Council members are untenable.

So my recommendation would be that the Special Convention be scheduled within six months’ time, to allow prospective internal candidates to declare their intentions and go about garnering support in the constituencies, while simultaneously allowing the membership to heal.  I quote from a fellow poster on facebook, with whose sentiments I mostly agree: ‘The PNM and moreso, the "leadership" or General Council, needs to take a detached and long term view of where the party needs to be.  Go with Rowley as interim leader, review the party's constitution and look at internal elections for all positions within 12-18 months.  Having agreed on a leader, who may not be any of the 12, then the party must be disciplined enough to have him/her appointed to the senate for exposure and placed in a winnable seat.  But the main issues would be acceptance that there needs to be change, adoption of a long term view and discipline by adhering to a vision that all accept.’

At the moment, the PNM party's constitution does not allow for the appointment of an interim Political  Leader by the General Council.  The Council can only call for a Special Convention for the Political Leader to be elected.  Thus, I believe the party should consider changing its constitution to make either one or all of the four Deputy Political Leaders elected positions.  Currently, these posts are selected by the Political Leader in consultation with the Chairman (and in the case of the Deputy Political Leader Tobago, in consultation with the Chairman and Vice-Chairman of the Tobago Council).  If these posts became elected instead of selected, then the Party would be able to have one of the four elected by the General Council as Interim Political Leader if this scenario should ever recur, and thus reduce their fears of having a prolonged leadership vacuum.

I also think the PNM leadership must heed their membership’s lesson on what happens to willfully ignorant leaders.  As a means of addressing this, I recommend three things:

• The party’s constitution should be changed to allow one-man-one-vote for their internal elections.  The current delegate-based system facilitates inherent filtering of messages from the ground level.  I know that in the party's early days, the old PNM leadership was able to keep in touch with the ground-level using the existing structure, but times have changed.  The membership is larger, for one reason, and the younger members are more used to the near-immediate and direct methods of communication, such as through technology like facebook, than having their concerns filtered through various councils (only to see the leadership ignore their concerns).
• Improve the communication channels.  Don’t ever tie the party to a brand based on the Political Leader, like the Patrick Manning-centric campaign conducted this year.  Make more effective use of the available technology.  For example, create an official party page on facebook similar to the one done for Mr Manning on facebook, but instead of the Ask Manning tab, create an Ask the GC tab, so any member can create and contribute to discussions for the attention of the General Council.  And ensure Council members read the posts and respond at least once per fortnight, to prove that they are in touch.
• The leaders must become more people-focused in deed than in word or money.  The campaign slogan was based on this, but their government's actions didn’t support these words; clearly, not enough members felt the 'love'.  Just as in human relationships, love is more than just spending money on gifts (social transfers).  Love is also about how respected people are treated.  The most glaring example of this is the attempted side-lining of Mrs Penelope Beckles-Robinson - three times between 2007 and 2010 - despite the clear cries of her supporters.  To add insult to injury, Mrs Beckles-Robinson, who was virtually untainted, was replaced by someone who allegedly benefitted from a controversial $500,000 'secret' scholarship from the Ministry of Culture (instead of the more proper GATE funding).  It was thus, no wonder that the party lost 16% of their Arimian support.  It seems almost karmic for them to have lost the Arima seat by only 32 votes.

In conclusion, the country needs the PNM to recover swiftly, yet properly.  While there is much hope that the new government would fulfill their campaign promises (and I am glad they got voted in), we must be aware of the risk that we got exchange instead of change.  Despite the welcome platitudes from the new Prime Minister about her government being servants of the people, there is not much beside personal honour and shame to hold them to this intention.  A good government requires a good Opposition.  Thus, the PNM has a very important part to play in ensuring the nation gets the governance it wants and deserves.  We look forward to a revitalised PNM that is markedly different from the so-called Patrick's National Movement of recent times.